Tropical Storm Isaias Strengthens, Gulf Coast on Alert

Tropical Storm Isaias, upgraded from Tropical Depression Nine, is projected to strengthen into the season's first hurricane before making landfall along the central Gulf Coast early Saturday. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring the system since it developed Monday and became better organized.

Hurricane hunters, including a NOAA Gulfstream jet, are investigating the storm and will continue to do so. As of Wednesday, maximum sustained winds were about 40 mph. Coastal watches or warnings are not yet in effect but are expected to be issued Wednesday evening for parts of the Gulf Coast.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in response to the potential threat. The storm is forecast to continue on an east-northeast track for the next two days before shifting northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by Friday.

Warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, about 1.8°F above average and extending deeply, could fuel the storm's intensification. However, strong wind shear could limit its development.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast as of early Wednesday indicated the system could approach the Mississippi-Alabama coast, or nearby areas, as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph by Friday evening.

Florida experienced heavy rain Monday and Tuesday from a slow-moving front, which is expected to remain through Thursday. This front could bring periods of heavy rain and potential flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of Florida, particularly from Central Florida through the Lake Okeechobee region, under a marginal risk for flash flooding. By Friday into Saturday, the western Panhandle, from west and south of Tallahassee through Pensacola, faces a slight risk of flash flooding.

Residents should monitor the storm's track. While the current forecast track would bring only sporadic rain bands to much of Florida, an eastward shift could increase rainfall and the threat of tornadoes. The National Hurricane Center predicts rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across the western Panhandle. Parts of the Tampa Bay area could receive about 4 inches of rain.