NATO Commander: Putin 'Cavalier' as Ukraine War Fuels West Division

A senior NATO commander warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming “increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting” as the war in Ukraine continues. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, NATO's deputy commander in Europe, spoke Tuesday at a security conference in Estonia, expressing concern that Moscow seeks to divide Western allies.

Stringer’s remarks come amid warnings from some European leaders that Russia might test NATO's collective defense pact with bolder attacks, including sabotage and espionage. He urged NATO members to recognize the “febrile environment” and respond carefully, suggesting Putin aims to provoke an “overreaction” from the alliance.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated last week that Russia could target NATO nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes, claiming they were accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed these concerns, asking his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure against potential drone and cyberattacks. However, some European officials suggested Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with NATO.

Officials in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, countries bordering Russia, have also expressed caution regarding escalation. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics told reporters Tuesday on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York that “Ukraine is fighting. Russia is absorbed in Ukraine. We do not observe any buildup near our borders. And from that part, I think that most would agree that the perspective of direct military attack is not correct.”

U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, speaking Tuesday evening after a panel discussion in Des Moines, Iowa, dismissed concerns about Russia testing the alliance. “Putin does not want a conflict with NATO,” Whitaker said. He attributed drone incursions into countries like Romania or Poland largely to electronic warfare and unintentional events, though he noted hybrid activities like sabotage are “more concerning.” Whitaker also cautioned against “overreacting,” stating, “that’s exactly what I think our adversaries would want or hope for.”

European countries have already experienced multiple incursions of Russian drones and missiles, alongside a campaign of covert Russian disruption that began after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. An AP interactive map tracking this campaign showed an escalation from 59 incidents in March 2025 to over 210 incidents, encompassing vandalism, propaganda, influence operations, arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, also speaking in Iowa, emphasized NATO's preparedness: “We have to make sure that we are prepared, we are strong, and he knows it. And if he does anything silly, he knows our reaction will be tough.”

Russia has already tested NATO defenses. In August, German officials accused Moscow of involvement in a plot at Leipzig airport where authorities found a drone with explosives near a Ukrainian plane carrying jet fuel. Last month, British officials reported disrupting a Russian plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company was set on fire in August, and a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded.

Stringer, NATO's deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, noted that the line between “accidental and deliberate is quite a fine one,” referring to drones diverted into NATO airspace by Russian GPS jamming or other electronic countermeasures. He suggested Russia could escalate this activity, but it does not mean Moscow has decided to do so. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, at the security conference, added that while opinions vary on the threat's acuity, “Russia’s attitude towards negligence” and deliberately targeting NATO neighbors “is almost the same.” Both Stringer and Michal believe the increase in covert attacks stems from Western support for Ukraine, not a failure by NATO nations to stop them.

Leaders suggest Putin is attempting to break NATO's support for Ukraine. Stringer said Putin is “looking at a whole number of things” to create division among allies because his campaign in Ukraine is struggling. Michal described the Russian leader as a “rat in the corner,” escalating activity in Europe to undermine Western support for Kyiv while Moscow faces pressure. Air Chief Marshall Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the U.K.'s defense staff, reported earlier this month that Russia's gains in Ukraine have been slow and costly, with over half a million dead, while Kyiv's deep-strike campaign has caused fuel shortages in 80 of 83 Russian regions. Despite this, there is no indication Putin is abandoning his goals in Ukraine. Baltic leaders, including Rinkevics, anticipate increased attacks on infrastructure as winter approaches, suggesting diplomatic progress is unlikely until spring.