Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf, Threatens Florida Coast

A new tropical depression, designated number nine, formed Tuesday afternoon in the Western Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center. The depression shows persistent thunderstorms that have consolidated with developing banding features.

Local conditions for Duval County and Northeast Florida through Thursday include gusty winds, rough seas, and surf along beaches from Jacksonville Beach to St. Augustine, with intermittent heavy rain. These conditions could intensify over the weekend, depending on the track and strength of Tropical Depression 9. The system is forecast to strengthen and could become the season's first hurricane.

The storm, expected to be named Isaias if it strengthens further, is forecast to turn sharply northward by late week. Current projections suggest a potential hurricane landfall near Pascagoula, Mississippi, or Mobile, Alabama, by Friday night or Saturday, before accelerating north. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the storm's development and potential impacts for Northeast Florida.

Wind shear in the Northern Gulf could limit the storm's strength, potentially creating a lopsided system with heavier rain and stronger winds on its northern and eastern sides. However, very warm Gulf waters and an approaching upper-level trough encourage strengthening. Recent model trends vary, with some indicating a stronger storm and others suggesting a weaker system near the Central Gulf coast.

Residents along the Gulf Coast and in Florida, from the Panhandle to the Atlantic coast, should stay informed about the latest forecasts. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. September 10th typically marks the peak. This season has set a record for the satellite era with no Atlantic hurricanes formed through Sept. 11.