Atlantic Hurricane Activity Declines in September

Why it matters locally: While Virginia is located inland from some of the most active hurricane paths, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity can still mean less risk of tropical storm remnants bringing heavy rainfall, flooding, and strong winds to coastal and inland communities, potentially easing preparation burdens for agencies like the Fairfax City Fire Marshal / Office of Code Administration and the Washington Dulles International Airport Police/Public Safety.

September, historically the most active month for Atlantic hurricane development, concluded without any hurricanes in the basin this year. This marks the first time in 30 years that no Atlantic hurricanes formed during September. The absence of these storms coincides with ongoing El Niño conditions. El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, influences global weather patterns. Researchers often associate El Niño with increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, a factor that can hinder hurricane formation and intensification. Wind shear disrupts the vertical structure of developing tropical cyclones, preventing them from organizing into hurricanes. Forecasters typically identify September as the peak month of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. During this month, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic generally reach their warmest, and atmospheric conditions often become most conducive to storm development. However, this year's data shows a departure from this established pattern.