Analysis Projects Continued Health Insurance Premium Increases for 2027

Washington D.C. — Health insurance premiums for many Americans enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans will likely increase in 2027, according to a recent analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF).

The analysis indicates that certain federal subsidies, which currently reduce premium costs for millions of enrollees, are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. Without congressional action to extend these enhanced subsidies, individuals and families may face higher monthly payments for their health coverage.

According to KFF, approximately 21 million people purchased ACA marketplace plans in 2024. A significant portion of these enrollees receive financial assistance, making their coverage more affordable. The expiration of these enhanced subsidies would directly affect their out-of-pocket costs.

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 expanded ACA subsidies, making more people eligible for financial assistance and increasing the amount of aid available. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 extended these enhanced subsidies through 2025. Congress would need to pass new legislation to maintain the current level of assistance beyond that date.

Premium increases observed in 2024 provide context for the KFF projection. The analysis for 2027 considers the potential absence of enhanced subsidy support.

Cynthia Cox, a vice president at KFF and director of the organization's Affordable Care Act work, highlighted the potential impact. "Millions of people would face significant premium increases if Congress does not extend enhanced subsidies which are set to expire at the end of 2025," Cox stated.

Cox further explained that while some premium increases occurred in 2024, the enhanced subsidies largely shielded most marketplace enrollees from these higher costs. "Nearly 90% of people buying their own insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace receive subsidies," Cox added, emphasizing the role subsidies play in mitigating financial burdens.

Without an extension, the KFF analysis projects that a 40-year-old earning $35,000 annually might see their premiums rise from $50 per month to $155 per month in 2027. Similarly, a couple each aged 50 and collectively earning $70,000 could experience an increase from $220 per month to $600 per month. A family of four with a household income of $90,000 might see their premiums increase from $175 per month to $440 per month for a silver-level plan.

The analysis also notes that states have a limited role in mitigating these potential premium hikes, as the enhanced subsidies are a federal program. Individual states cannot directly replace the federal funding. The final decisions regarding the continuation of these subsidies rest with Congress.