2026 Hurricane Season Forecast: Experts Disagree on Severity

Punta Gorda enters the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November 30. The National Hurricane Center began issuing tropical weather outlooks May 15.

Meteorologists disagree sharply on what to expect. The Colorado State University and Weather Channel forecasts predict a below-average season with 12 named storms, citing strong El Niño conditions that increase wind shear. NOAA's National Weather Service projects 8–14 named storms, accounting for El Niño while factoring in slightly above-normal ocean temperatures.

The University of Arizona broke ranks, predicting 20 named storms based on parallels to the active 2023 season. North Carolina State University called for an average season of 12–15 named storms.

The historical average from 1991 to 2020 was 14 named storms per season. This year's storm names include Leah, which replaced Laura from the 2020 season.