Alaska Salmon Harvest Forecast Drops Over a Third in 2026

Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologists have forecast a sharp decline in the state's 2026 commercial salmon harvest, projecting 125.5 million salmon — more than a third below the 2025 estimate. The projection, released in February, anticipates lower returns for sockeye, chum, coho and king salmon across major regions, including Southeast Alaska's storied waters and the vast Bristol Bay fishery. Last year's forecast missed the mark by about 17 million fish, or less than 10 percent, underscoring the challenges of predicting volatile runs.

In Petersburg and other Southeast hubs, the news compounds pressures on trollers and seiners who rely on steady pink and chum harvests. While runs along key rivers are expected to hold steady with 2025 levels, broad weaknesses in commercial stocks signal caution for processors in Ketchikan and Sitka. The forecast covers only commercial catches, excluding subsistence and sport fisheries that sustain rural villages from Kodiak to the Yukon.

Yukon River Chinook salmon face another dire year, with preliminary estimates pegging the 2026 run at around 25,000 Canadian-origin fish — a fraction of historical averages over 100,000 annually. Zachary Liller, ADFG's Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim research coordinator, highlighted the grim outlook ahead of the Joint Technical Committee's official forecast at the Yukon River Panel's April meeting. Disease surges and environmental stressors have driven the steep decline seen in 2024 and 2025, rippling into communities along the river from Eagle to Emmonak.

Fishermen from Homer to Haines are recalibrating operations, with some eyeing diversified gear amid the downturn. State managers emphasize the forecast's 10 percent margin for adjustment as runs unfold this summer.