Supreme Court Approval Dips, Partisanship Influences Public Opinion

Why it matters locally: The fluctuating approval of the Supreme Court, particularly along partisan lines, has implications for how Washington residents perceive the federal judiciary. Decisions made by the court on issues such as federal regulations and civil liberties directly affect the legal landscape and individual rights within the state.

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Public approval for the Supreme Court registered at 47%, according to a poll conducted July 22-29. This figure represents a minor decline from 46% approval recorded in May. Republicans showed higher approval for the court's performance, with 74% expressing approval. Among Independents, 35% approved, while only 22% of Democrats shared this view. Ideological leanings also correlated with approval rates; 80% of very conservative respondents approved, decreasing to 72% among the somewhat conservative. Approval further dropped to 42% for moderates, 17% for the somewhat liberal, and 5% for very liberal adults. Fifty-five percent of all adults believed the Supreme Court ruled in favor of former President Donald Trump or his administration either almost always or most of the time. Forty-five percent thought the court sided with the administration only some of the time or almost never. Perceptions of the court's favoritism towards Trump varied by political party. Sixty-three percent of Republicans stated the court favored Trump only some of the time or almost never. Conversely, 77% of Democrats believed the court ruled for Trump almost always or most of the time. Independents were nearly evenly split, with 49% perceiving the court as more often siding with Trump and 51% believing it mostly ruled against him. Among Independents and Democrats, the perception that the court frequently ruled against Trump correlated with higher approval of the court. However, this perception did not impact Republicans' approval of the court. While overall court approval remained below 50%, a majority of respondents favored 11 of 13 specific court decisions. The median decision garnered support from 62% of adults. Both Democrats and Republicans largely supported most rulings, though agreement on specific decisions varied. Democrats favored an average of 8.1 out of 13 decisions, Republicans 7.9, and Independents 7.4. Only three decisions received majority support from both parties: limiting police access to cell phone locations, gun possession for drug users, and preventing the president from removing a Federal Reserve Board member. Partisan divides appeared more pronounced in cases involving the Trump administration. For instance, 81% of Republicans favored a ruling allowing the Trump administration to restrict asylum seekers, compared to 22% of Democrats. In some cases where the court ruled against the administration, significant minorities of Republicans, 39% or more, still favored the decision. These included the rejection of Trump's appeal of the E. Jean Carroll verdict and the administration's positions on tariffs and birthright citizenship. Other rulings, such as state bans on transgender athletes in women's sports and whether a state may ban conversion therapy, also showed varying degrees of bipartisan support. Agreement with specific court decisions contributed to overall approval, though its effect was less pronounced than that of partisanship and ideology. The probability of approval increased with greater agreement on decisions across all partisan groups, albeit less steeply for Republicans. This suggests that while individual rulings influence public perception, strong partisan differences persist in views of the court. Partisanship and ideology remain primary drivers of court approval. In July 2021, approval rates between Republicans (58%) and Democrats (60%) were similar. Since then, partisanship has become a more significant factor in shaping public opinion regarding the Supreme Court.