Atlantic Hurricane Season Continues Quietly, No Threats for Duval County

Duval County residents can breathe easy as the Atlantic hurricane season continues its unusually quiet trend. No tropical threats or impacts are currently expected for Jacksonville, Northeast Florida, or Southeast Georgia.

This season, which officially runs from June 1st to November 30th, has seen remarkably low activity. The peak of the hurricane season historically falls around September 10th. As of today, September 18, 2026, only five named storms have formed, falling below the average of six by August 29th. Notably, no hurricanes have developed this season, well past the average first hurricane date of August 11th.

The 'Accumulated Cyclone Energy' (ACE), a metric that measures the strength and duration of tropical systems, reached a record low through September 16th. This year also established a record for the satellite era, which began in 1966, with no Atlantic hurricanes forming through and beyond September 11th.

Forecasters observed a weak low southeast of Bermuda that failed to develop, highlighting challenges with AI models in predicting genesis. These models often struggle with initial formation predictions but perform better once a system has organized. Currently, a nontropical low-pressure system in the far Northeast Atlantic might show some tropical or subtropical development, but it is expected to remain south of the Azores and pose no threat to our region.

Strong wind shear continues to dominate much of the Atlantic Basin, particularly south of about 20 degrees North. This condition is a hallmark of an El Niño season. While longer-range models show inconsistent signs of potentially increased activity late this month into early October, particularly in the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic, it remains too early to determine specific details. Residents should continue to monitor official forecasts as the season progresses.