NOAA Declares El Niño Has Formed, Forecasts Strengthening Conditions Ahead

Why it matters locally: El Niño typically brings increased winter precipitation to New Mexico and can influence spring drought conditions, affecting water availability for the state's agriculture and ranching sectors.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that El Niño has formed and released forecasts predicting the climate pattern will strengthen over the coming months. El Niño, a warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, occurs periodically and influences weather systems globally. NOAA forecasters monitor ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressure, and wind patterns to track the phenomenon's development and intensity. The agency issued an advisory about the forming El Niño as part of its routine climate monitoring. NOAA tracks these patterns because El Niño episodes typically correlate with shifts in precipitation, temperature, and severe weather across different parts of the world, including North America, South America, Africa, and Asia. The strengthening projection indicates that NOAA forecasters expect the temperature anomalies and atmospheric effects associated with El Niño to intensify during the forecast period. The specific timing and magnitude of impacts vary by region and season. El Niño episodes contrast with La Niña episodes, when Pacific waters cool below normal temperatures. Between these two patterns, the ocean typically cycles through neutral conditions. The current transition into El Niño marks a shift from the preceding climate state. Weather forecasters and climate scientists rely on NOAA's El Niño projections to inform seasonal weather forecasts and prepare communities for potential changes in precipitation and temperature patterns.