Kansas Wheat Outlook Sours: 31% Production Drop Predicted

Kansas' 2026 hard red winter wheat crop, once eyed for potential highs, is now projected to yield just 240 million bushels—a 31% drop from 2025's record 346.8 million bushels—according to economist Gregg Ibendahl's model at Kansas State University.[1][2] The forecast pegs yield at 39.4 bushels per acre, 4.8 bushels below the 44.2 trend line, across 6.095 million harvested acres.[1] USDA ratings as of April 19 showed only 24% of the crop good-to-excellent, down sharply from 62% in late November 2025, with 15% very poor and 26% poor.[1][2] Deteriorating conditions stem from warmer, drier winter weather that advanced crop development ahead of schedule—15% headed by mid-April versus a 2% five-year average.[2] In top-producing Kansas, the sharp decline in good-to-excellent ratings signals stress from heat and moisture deficits, echoing woes in neighboring Oklahoma and Nebraska where nearly half the crop rates poor to very poor.[2] Ibendahl notes lower yields and acres will compound the production shortfall.[2] Last year's harvest set benchmarks with 51 bushels per acre on 6.8 million acres, bolstered by favorable June conditions despite early drought fears in western counties.[3] Harvest typically kicks off early June in southern Kansas, as seen in Conway Springs where 2025 yields ranged 26-50 bushels amid patchy progress.[4][7] For 2026, farmers from Wichita to the Oklahoma line watch nervously as forecasts point to below-trend output threatening rural co-ops and grain elevators.