Alaska Salmon Harvest Forecast Drops Over a Third in 2026

Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologists have forecast a sharp decline in the state's 2026 commercial salmon harvest, projecting 125.5 million salmon — more than a third below the 2025 estimate.[1][3] The projection, released in February, anticipates lower returns for sockeye, chum, coho and king salmon across major regions, including Southeast Alaska's storied waters and the vast Bristol Bay fishery.[1] Last year's forecast missed the mark by about 17 million fish, or less than 10 percent, underscoring the challenges of predicting volatile runs.[1] In Petersburg and other Southeast hubs, the news compounds pressures on trollers and seiners who rely on steady pink and chum harvests.[3] While runs along key rivers are expected to hold steady with 2025 levels, broad weaknesses in commercial stocks signal caution for processors in Ketchikan and Sitka.[1] The forecast covers only commercial catches, excluding subsistence and sport fisheries that sustain rural villages from Kodiak to the Yukon.[1] Yukon River Chinook salmon face another dire year, with preliminary estimates pegging the 2026 run at around 25,000 Canadian-origin fish — a fraction of historical averages over 100,000 annually.[2] Zachary Liller, ADFG's Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim research coordinator, highlighted the grim outlook ahead of the Joint Technical Committee's official forecast at the Yukon River Panel's April meeting.[2] Disease surges and environmental stressors have driven the steep decline seen in 2024 and 2025, rippling into communities along the river from Eagle to Emmonak.[2] Fishermen from Homer to Haines are recalibrating operations, with some eyeing diversified gear amid the downturn.[1] State managers emphasize the forecast's 10 percent margin for adjustment as runs unfold this summer.[1]