Supreme Court Ideological Patterns Vary by Docket and Justice

**WASHINGTON** — An analysis of Supreme Court voting patterns challenges common shorthand descriptions of the court's ideological makeup, indicating that judicial behavior is influenced by factors such as issue area, case selection, and the type of docket. The study examined cases from the term beginning when Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson joined the court in 2022 through the current term, evaluating justices' votes as liberal or conservative based on established coding methods.

The analysis gauges a justice's ideological distance from a 50/50 split between conservative and liberal votes. A higher positive value indicates a more conservative leaning, while a negative value signifies a more liberal orientation.

### Merits Docket Findings

On the merits docket, Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Brown Jackson, and Elena Kagan demonstrated the furthest leanings toward the liberal side. Sotomayor positioned 17.5 points to the liberal side, Jackson 16.3 points liberal, and Kagan 15.7 points liberal. Conversely, Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas exhibited the strongest conservative leanings, with Alito at 15.5 points conservative and Thomas at 12.1 points conservative.

Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and Justice Neil Gorsuch registered closer to the statistical middle. Barrett was 2.5 points from a 50/50 split, Roberts 3.4 points, Kavanaugh 5.1 points, and Gorsuch 6.2 points.

The study notes that individual cases may present nuanced outcomes. For instance, in *Trump v. Barbara*, the court rejected an effort to narrow birthright citizenship, an outcome coded as liberal. Chief Justice Roberts authored the majority opinion, joined by Justices Barrett, Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson. Justice Kavanaugh disagreed with the constitutional holding but found a violation of federal law.

Similarly, *Chatrie v. United States* determined that police obtaining Google location data via a geofence warrant constituted a Fourth Amendment search. This decision, coded as liberal due to strengthening privacy protections, included Justices Roberts and Kavanaugh in the majority alongside Justice Kagan. Justice Gorsuch concurred separately.

### Emergency Docket Observations

Voting patterns on the emergency docket presented a different dynamic, characterized by sharper ideological distinctions. Justice Thomas registered 33.8 points to the conservative side, and Justice Alito 31.8 points conservative, making them the most distant conservative poles. Justices Sotomayor and Jackson were the furthest liberal poles, at 26.8 and 25.0 points liberal, respectively.

Justice Kagan's position on the emergency docket was 8.6 points to the liberal side, indicating a closer proximity to the middle compared to her merits docket stance. Justices Gorsuch (7.3 points conservative), Chief Justice Roberts (9.1 points conservative), Justice Barrett (11.5 points conservative), and Justice Kavanaugh (12.1 points conservative) also demonstrated relatively closer positions to the center compared to Justices Thomas and Alito on this docket.

Emergency applications often lack full public vote counts, disclosing primarily named dissents. The analysis for this docket assumes that a justice not publicly dissenting aligns with the court's decision, acknowledging that this inference has limitations, such as potential strategic silence or institutional restraint.

An example illustrating this is *Callais v. Louisiana*, where the court accelerated a decision limiting the Voting Rights Act. Justice Jackson dissented, but Justices Sotomayor and Kagan did not publicly join the dissent. Justices Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch defended the court's action.

### Combined Docket Analysis

Combining both dockets, Justice Alito emerged as the most distant justice overall at 22.0 points to the conservative side, followed by Justice Sotomayor at 21.3 points to the liberal side. Justice Thomas registered 20.6 points conservative, and Justice Jackson 19.8 points liberal.

Justice Kagan occupied an intermediate liberal position, 12.9 points from the 50/50 line. Justice Kavanaugh held a smaller conservative position at 7.9 points. Justices Gorsuch (6.6 points conservative), Justice Barrett (6.0 points conservative), and Chief Justice Roberts (5.6 points conservative) were closest to the middle.

This combined perspective suggested a three-band view of the court. Justices Alito, Sotomayor, Thomas, and Jackson formed distinct ideological poles. Justices Roberts, Barrett, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh occupied a center-right middle zone, while Justice Kagan held an intermediate liberal position.

The analysis indicated that the court's overall center of gravity leans conservative, as even the justices closest to the middle are Republican appointees with conservative-leaning scores. However, it also highlighted variations among conservative justices, with Roberts, Barrett, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh positioned closer to the center than Thomas and Alito.

Different issue areas can also elicit varied judicial responses. A justice may exhibit conservative tendencies in religion cases, libertarian views in speech cases, or pro-defendant stances in some criminal procedure matters. These dimensions do not always conform to a singular liberal-conservative classification.

The findings underscore that understanding Supreme Court ideology requires considering case selection, docket types, and the visibility of voting information, presenting a more intricate picture than simplified ideological labels.