Jacksonville Hurricane Season Quiet: No Immediate Threats

Jacksonville and Northeast Florida face no immediate tropical threats as the Atlantic hurricane season continues its unusually quiet trend. The Atlantic Basin has recorded a record-low number of hurricanes this year, a pattern meteorologists attribute to strong wind shear.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low-chance area for development in the Central Atlantic, far from Bermuda. Current forecasts indicate that any storm forming there would remain at sea and pose no risk to the region.

The hurricane season, running from June 1 to November 30, has set a record for the satellite era (since 1966) with no Atlantic hurricanes recorded through Sept. 11. The average date for the sixth named storm is Aug. 29, and the first Atlantic hurricane typically forms by Aug. 11. Neither milestone has occurred this year.

Forecasters cite strong wind shear across much of the Atlantic Basin, especially south of 20 degrees North latitude, as a primary reason for the inactivity. This atmospheric condition aligns with a strong Pacific El Niño, which is also a contributing factor to the calm season.

While the outlook for Jacksonville remains calm, local officials urge continued preparedness. Residents should review preparedness guides from the City of Jacksonville and Georgia, and stay informed using weather apps.

In the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Norbert has formed but is forecast to move westward and dissipate by mid-week, posing no threat to the Atlantic coast.

Residents are reminded that taping windows is not an effective storm protection measure; closing curtains and blinds is recommended instead. The forecast cone of uncertainty indicates average forecast error, not the storm's width or potential damage area.

Saharan dust, which can inhibit tropical development, typically peaks in June and July. While large dust clouds are present over the Central and Eastern Atlantic, their westward impact is diminishing. They can contribute to hazy skies in the Caribbean and sometimes Florida.

The next named storm on the Atlantic list would be "Fay." The World Meteorological Organization randomly selects names from lists that repeat every six years. Names of significant past storms, such as Florence and Michael (2018), Dorian (2019), and Laura, Eta, and Iota (2020), have been retired.