AI Predicts Vibrio Bacteria Hotspots in Florida Waters

Researchers in Florida are developing an artificial intelligence tool to predict the presence of dangerous Vibrio bacteria in coastal waters up to two weeks in advance. The system, named VIGOR (Vibrio Infection Genomics for Outbreak Risk Forecasting), aims to provide early warnings to the public and officials.

Florida health records show 22 cases of Vibrio vulnificus reported statewide this year, with two cases in the Jacksonville area. Duval County confirmed one new case in August involving a person in their 60s. Last April, St. Johns County reported a case in an individual in their 70s.

Vibrio bacteria occur naturally in warm coastal waters and can cause severe illness. Infection can result from consuming raw or undercooked shellfish or from open wounds exposed to contaminated water. Former local anchor Tera Lageman described her battle with Vibrio, contracted from eating raw oysters, as more painful than labor.

Dr. Antar Jutla, an environmental engineering professor at the University of Florida, leads the VIGOR project. The AI-enabled, satellite-based tool will forecast potential Vibrio hotspots with four-kilometer resolution, offering predictions up to two weeks ahead. Jutla stated, “Our hope is that we will be able to predict at least two weeks in advance and at four kilometer resolution, so that people going to beaches, eating raw seafood, can make their own informed decisions.”

VIGOR will integrate satellite data, including sea surface temperature and nutrient levels, along with population density and beach activity information to calculate a risk score for specific areas. The project seeks to shift public health warnings from a reactive approach to an anticipatory system.

The VIGOR project is a collaboration between the University of Florida and the University of Maryland, funded by a $3.6 million grant from the National Institutes of Health.