Tropical Storm Fay Forms, No Threat to Jacksonville Area

JACKSONVILLE, FL — Tropical Storm Fay has formed over the far Northeast Atlantic Ocean, but forecasters confirm it poses no threat to Duval County or surrounding areas. The storm, upgraded from a tropical depression Sunday, is expected to move northeast before turning southwest and west. This track results from a building ridge of high pressure to the storm's north and east. Increasing wind shear and dry air are anticipated to weaken the system into a remnant low by mid-to-late week.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30, has seen six named storms. The average date for the seventh named storm is September 3, and the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11. This year has seen no Atlantic hurricanes through September 11, a record for the satellite era since 1966. Strong wind shear has dominated much of the Atlantic Basin, particularly south of 20 degrees North latitude, a condition often associated with El Niño seasons, according to meteorologist Mike Buresh.

While Fay is not a concern for Northeast Florida or Southeast Georgia, longer-range models indicate potential for increased Atlantic Basin activity late this month into early October. Areas to monitor may include the Gulf of Mexico and the Southwest Atlantic. Additionally, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop over the Northwest Atlantic by next weekend, which could become a hybrid system affecting New England and nearby areas from Friday through Sunday.

Long-range models also suggest the possibility of tropical development from a wave moving off Africa by late week, though its chances of crossing the Atlantic appear low. Residents are reminded to stay informed through official channels and remain prepared throughout the hurricane season.