Research Links Human Activity to Increased Wildfire Conditions in Spain and France

Why it matters locally: While focusing on Europe, the studies' findings on human-caused climate change intensifying wildfire conditions are directly relevant to California, a state highly susceptible to extreme fire weather and significant wildfire events.

LONDON — Human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather that contributed to recent wildfires in Spain and France, according to findings from two new studies. Researchers determined that these conditions also intensified an eight-year trend of increased burning across Southern Europe. Scientists conducted rapid attribution studies on the extreme fire weather experienced in both regions. One study, focusing on the Southwestern European heatwave and wildfire season from June to August 2022, analyzed weather patterns in Spain, Portugal, and France. Another study examined the specific conditions that fueled the summer 2022 wildfires in Southwestern Europe, including Portugal, Spain, and France, with a particular focus on fire emissions in France. The studies indicate that human activities have made periods of high wildfire risk more probable. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, stated, "Climate change is really making these extreme fire weather events much, much more likely." Otto, who co-authored one of the studies, further explained that such events have become "more intense as well." The analyses conclude that human-induced climate change rendered the type of extreme fire weather seen in Southwestern Europe in 2022 at least 10 times more likely. This increase was observed in Spain and Portugal, while in France, human activity made the conditions 60% more likely. Scientists defined extreme fire weather as specific combinations of high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds. Benjamin Poulter, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who was not involved in the studies, reviewed the findings. He stated that the studies provided "clear evidence that human-caused climate change amplified extreme fire weather in Europe during the summer of 2022." The World Weather Attribution Group, an international collaboration of climate scientists, conducted the research. They utilized established climate models and statistical methods to isolate the influence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions on weather events. This methodology allows scientists to quantify how much human activity has altered the probability and intensity of specific extreme weather phenomena. The findings align with broader scientific understanding regarding the connection between a warming climate and increased wildfire activity in various parts of the world. Climate change contributes to drier vegetation and more extreme heatwaves, which create conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of fires.